Maybe not in the same scenario but, in the "far distant future" if electric vehicles become more common place, I could see the oil industry scrambling to stay in the game by offering incentives.
Could you expound on this a bit, w/ regard to incentives? To the consumer?
The major oil producers have a valuable asset with the distribution infrastructure they've already built / own (e.g.; gas station on every corner). You'll see them adapt those to either incorporate charging stations in place of some / all of the fuel pumps, or, sell some of the less profitable locations in order to procure land for mass charging stations in other locations.
The oil companies are, at heart, energy companies. They'll adapt to whatever forms of energy become prevalent with global personal transport, especially in N. America. And I don't see electricity generators jumping into their space, either. They'll get the home consumer market w/ charging stations in garages, etc., while providing the generation for the 'traditional' oil companies to power their mass charging locations, and receiving a nice profit on that.
Very real possibility in decades to come. A government could use the shutdown of refineries as an election platform, just as they have used it with coal and natural gas power generation. It just has to become a 'movement' and then suddenly it is cancelled.
Respectfully disagree on this, at least in a free-market economy. What you're alluding to is reminiscent of planned economies, and asset seizure / forfeiture.
Coal usage has declined because other energy forms have become cheaper (one can make an argument about subsidies, etc., but in the end, the business owner decides what to pursue to ensure survivability in the marketplace.)
To borrow a well-used analogy...
When automobiles replaced the horse, people who made buggy whips either found another niche, or they ceased to exist. The only entity who had a (direct) hand in that... was the 'invisible hand' of the free market.
Governments were happy to have a new auto manufacturing industry, along with the benefits that bestowed upon their citizens -- but they didn't directly put the buggy whip makers out of business. They'd have been fine with buggy whips continuing to be made / sold / consumed. But the consumer & businesses decide the market.
Yes, I know this is a bit of an oversimplification. But there's a 10,000 character limit for posts here on our site