I have a feeling that TPTB (both fed & state) will stay focused on diesel, because of how much particulate is emitted when they're converted to 'rolling coal', even using ULSD fuel. I'll also opine that the sales volume of light-duty trucks in general contribute to them having a watchful eye, as well.
The online companies that weren't nailed by EPA closed up their storefronts once the 'Diesel Brothers' case went public (I just today read that the 'brothers' (they're not) now have to pay about $900K in court costs,
on top of what they were already fined for the conversions they did. ) Anyone still doing this is waaay on the down low, now.
As for the newer trucks, I haven't yet read of anyone cracking the new ECUs that GM updated to a couple of years ago. They're encrypted, IIRC. So until someone cracks them, any truck newer than, say, 2017 or so is stuck buying DEF and keeping emissions pretty much OEM-issued. Then you have companies like FCA / Ram (maybe others?) disabling the truck outright if it can't run its DEF routines (either because of no fluid, or a catalyst issue, etc.) I don't know about you, but if I paid today's prices for a new diesel truck, and saw the dashboard warning me that the truck was going to stop running in 50-100 miles... I'd be PLENTY p!ssed off. I think that's an EPA-mandated thing, so it's probably not just Ram.
If the OEM encryption holds, BTW, I think that's what'll put companies like HP Tuners, et al, out of business (along with the changeover to BEVs)
Back to the gassers... Autos & light-duty trucks burn *so* clean now, that you see localities starting to de-emphasize testing (you have experience with this). That tells me, at least, that they 'catch' so few violations, relative to the costs of mandated testing (facilities, equipment, staff, IT resources, etc.), and / or the violations aren't 'gross', like when they started testing back in the '70s / '80s, that it's not worth the expense. Wishing my state would adopt this philosophy (although the one vehicle they granted me an
automatic exemption on, based on GVWR... is the 6.0L pickup. And it's registered as a 'B' (class 2) truck, same as the 1500 / half-tons. Go figure) As it is, my state (and many others) will grant waivers, once you prove you've spent more than
x dollars /
y attempts to bring the vehicle in compliance.
Given another 15 years or so, the 'plan' is that there'll be so few ICE vehicles left in the national fleet, that emissions from them are going to be considered miniscule. Another 10 years on top of that, and the only ones you'll see are collector / antiques. Those will never be outlawed, IMO, because the owners tend to be well-heeled, and have pull with their legislatures / lobbyists (at least, here in the US). The worst you'll probably see to keep them 'off the roads' is probably a special licensing / permitting scheme, which those owners will agree to / adopt, in order to both concentrate ownership in fewer hands, and to (indirectly) keep pricing down for acquisition of additional vehicles.
There are two outliers WRT geographic locations, IMHO.
One is California, as long as they're still allowed to set their own standards -- and there are a few other states that basically set their own to (most of) whatever California does. The last administration moved to eliminate Cali's right to 'roll their own', but the current one is more aligned with them, of course.
The other... is Canada. Because I'm not a resident of that fine-@ss country 🇨🇦, I have *no* idea what the future holds. On the one hand, Ottawa and (most of) the provinces do have a heavy regulatory hand on some issues. On others, like KXL... well, things are... different. And we'll leave it at that.
The issue with Canada is, of course, that they have 10% of the US' population (and roughly 10% of the automobiles). So they're not in a position to set N. American emission standards, etc., by themselves. And Mexico figures into this less than Canada does, but more for economic reasons, vs. population.
Given where the growth in automotive sales is (China), the manufacturers probably have that country's standards as their primary concern, not N. America's. Not to be jingoistic, but N. America has done one helluva job reducing auto emissions since the late 1960s. Here's the latest data I could find re: "biggest pollution sources" (from Wikipedia):
(No, this chart doesn't show 'percentage of reduction' since 1990 (or 1960, or... ) But IIRC, the N. American fleet is > 90% cleaner than it was back when we were kids. I'll guess that the 'Transportation' piece of that pie used to be a LOT bigger than it is, now.
As for the other segments... Coal is quickly losing favor for electricity generation (due to pricing... and coal is pretty cheap to begin with). The upcoming infrastructure bill headed for the US Congress in the next few weeks is sure to contain some updates for the US / N. American grid (which is sorely needing updating, and was only 50% efficient under optimal circumstances). Industry... well, we know there's not much of an actual manufacturing base left in the US, so that's going to be lessened, as well.
Ok. I'm taking a break from writing, now.
